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As the Biden administration prepares to relinquish power next month, it may leave without accomplishing a much-discussed diplomatic goal: the normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, accompanied by a formal US security agreement with Saudi Arabia.
The future of a formal US-Saudi security agreement remains uncertain, though the Biden administration appears to be now pursuing a pact that would not involve a broader deal with Israel making concessions towards a Palestinian state.
While the Biden-administration may want to expedite the deal so that it is complete before 20 January 2025, western media reports that Riyadh is now looking for a “more modest” agreement that forgoes normalising ties with Israel
Reuters citing sources says that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MbS) has doubled down on the condition that normalisation with Israel must depend on Tel Aviv’s commitment to work towards the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, in line with the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still eager to secure normalisation with the Saudi powerhouse as a historic milestone and a sign of broader acceptance in the Arab world. But Netanyahu is treading cautiously as he knows that any step towards a two-state solution would break apart his ruling coalition, the sources said.
As a result of the Saudi and Israeli positions, “Riyadh and Washington hope a more modest defence pact could be sealed before President Joe Biden leaves the White House in January.” according to the Saudi and western sources.
Earlier this year, numerous reports said Saudi Arabia was seeking a defence pact with Washington, to secure access to better US weaponry, and a US-backed nuclear programme in exchange for it agreeing to normalisation of ties with Israel.
The Guardian reported in May, however, that the kingdom began pushing for a “more modest” defence pact with the US that foregoes a normalisation deal with Israel due to Tel Aviv’s intransigence toward an independent Palestinian state.
US President Joe Biden said last week that the ceasefire in Lebanon moves Washington closer to its vision for a “more integrated” West Asia, referring to the normalisation of ties by Arab states with Israel.
“I applaud the courageous decision made by the leaders of Lebanon and Israel to end the violence. It reminds us that peace is possible.” the president added.
The US president went on to say that Washington remains prepared to broker a peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia that will include “a credible pathway for establishing a Palestinian state.”
A full-blown US-Saudi treaty would need to pass the US Senate with a two-thirds majority – and this would be a non-starter unless Riyadh recognises Israel, the sources said.
The pact now under discussion would involve expanding joint military exercises and drills to address regional threats, mainly from Iran. It would foster partnerships between US and Saudi defence firms, with safeguards to prevent collaboration with China, the sources said.
The agreement would promote Saudi investment in advanced technologies, especially drone defence. The US would increase its presence in Riyadh through training, logistics and cyber security support, and may deploy a Patriot missile battalion to enhance missile defence and integrated deterrence.
But it would not be the kind of binding mutual defence treaty that would oblige US forces to protect the world’s biggest oil exporter in the event of a foreign attack.
The picture is complicated further, however, by the impending arrival of Donald Trump in the White House. While Trump’s plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict excludes any provisions for Palestinian statehood or sovereignty, he is a close ally of the Saudi crown prince.
Palestinian and some Arab officials worry that Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner – architect of the “Deal of the Century” and also a close ally of the crown prince – may ultimately persuade him to support the plan.
How the prince reconciles Saudi priorities with this shifting diplomatic landscape will be pivotal, defining both his leadership and the future of the peace process, diplomats said.
The current US administration has not yet given up hope for a deal on security guarantees before Biden leaves office in January, but several obstacles remain. One of which is whether there is enough time to strike a deal.
US officials are mindful that the kingdom is still interested in formally cementing the guarantees it has been seeking, especially to gain access to more advanced weapons, but are uncertain whether it would prefer to get it done under Biden, or wait for Trump, the source say.
The critics of any such agreement between Saudi Arabia and the US say that he US has already contributed to a moral hazard by arming the Saudi Arabia-UAE coalition in its initial 2015 Operation Decisive Storm aerial bombing campaign on Yemen, thereby becoming complicit in killing thousands of civilians.
Alex Little in his opinion piece on US-based website thehill.com says that Saudi Arabia faces no threat to its sovereignty, as the Middle East lacks a true regional hegemon. Regional stability is one of Washington’s main rationales in its dealings with Riyadh. Yet Saudi Arabia has been involved in almost every conflict zone and geopolitical fault line throughout the Middle East. Additionally, weapons that were given to the Saudis have a history of ending up in adversaries’ hands, including Al Qaeda and Iran. Moreover, corruption and a lack of transparency in Saudi defence institutions is a prevailing problem.
Little further opines that on top of the mismanagement of military aid, devoting equipment that Saudi Arabia would need to enhance its defence would detract from American interests in higher priority theaters, namely the Indo-Pacific.
He says further that fears that China will replace the US as a security guarantor in the Middle East are unfounded. China has little to no ability to project power in the Middle East and is highly opposed to military intervention, alliances and establishing bases.
Another dilemma which MbS faces is how to deal with the internal audience and the so-called Islamic world, if he agrees to normalisation of ties with Israel, as it will definitely impact his standing in the country and the region negatively.
While the Saudi leadership strongly advocates Palestinian statehood, it remains uncertain, according to diplomats, how the crown prince would respond if Trump revives the deal, he floated in 2020 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.