{"id":5516,"date":"2024-12-22T07:39:34","date_gmt":"2024-12-22T07:39:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/?p=5516"},"modified":"2024-12-22T07:39:35","modified_gmt":"2024-12-22T07:39:35","slug":"assads-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/?p=5516","title":{"rendered":"Assad&#8217;s Downfall Alters Old Regional Alliances"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div><p id=\"pvc_stats_5516\" class=\"pvc_stats all  \" data-element-id=\"5516\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon medium\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" version=\"1.0\" viewBox=\"0 0 502 315\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\"><g transform=\"translate(0,332) scale(0.1,-0.1)\" fill=\"\" stroke=\"none\"><path d=\"M2394 3279 l-29 -30 -3 -207 c-2 -182 0 -211 15 -242 39 -76 157 -76 196 0 15 31 17 60 15 243 l-3 209 -33 29 c-26 23 -41 29 -80 29 -41 0 -53 -5 -78 -31z\"\/><path d=\"M3085 3251 c-45 -19 -58 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1024w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e5-1-300x278.jpg 300w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e5-1-768x712.jpg 768w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e5-1.jpg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1022\" data-id=\"5517\" src=\"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e4-3-1024x1022.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5517\" srcset=\"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e4-3-1024x1022.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e4-3-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e4-3-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e4-3-768x767.jpg 768w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e4-3.jpg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" 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https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e2-6-200x300.jpg 200w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e2-6-768x1152.jpg 768w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e2-6-1024x1536.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e2-6.jpg 1067w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 683px) 100vw, 683px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"783\" height=\"1024\" data-id=\"5521\" src=\"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e1-6-783x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5521\" srcset=\"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e1-6-783x1024.jpg 783w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e1-6-229x300.jpg 229w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e1-6-768x1004.jpg 768w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e1-6.jpg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 783px) 100vw, 783px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/\n\">https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/maeeshat.in\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/\n\">https:\/\/maeeshat.in\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.punjabtodaynews.com\/assads-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/\n\">https:\/\/www.punjabtodaynews.com\/assads-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/ground.news\/article\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances-clarion-india\n\">https:\/\/ground.news\/article\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances-clarion-india<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/\n\">https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sentinelassam.com\/more-news\/editorial\/assads-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\n\">https:\/\/www.sentinelassam.com\/more-news\/editorial\/assads-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/ummid.com\/news\/2024\/december\/16-12-2024\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances.html\n\">https:\/\/ummid.com\/news\/2024\/december\/16-12-2024\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances.html<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.punjabtodaynews.com\/assads-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/\">https:\/\/www.punjabtodaynews.com\/assads-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Assad&#8217;s Downfall Alters Old Regional Alliances<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>The fall of Assad-regime has given birth to antagonisms amongst its earlier allies like Iran, Turkey, and Russia. On the other hand, the leverage gained by Israel, ostensibly on American support, does not augur well for the region.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The striking developments in Syria over the past 13 days leading to the rapid fall of the Assad regime have transfixed the world. Thousands are already trying to make their way back to Syria after years in exile. It turns out the answer to the refugee crisis that sent millions of Syrians into neighbouring countries and Europe may simply be the removal of a murderous dictator. Though in reality during recent months, more countries were trying to normalise ties with Assad. Italy even sent an ambassador back to Damascus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the Syrian situation and a decrease oi Iran\u2019s influence in Syria may have profound implications for the middle east\u2019s geopolitical landscape, power dynamics, and strategic alignments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regional actors including Iran, Turkey, and the Persian Gulf states may compete to find a toehold during the transitional period in Syria to realign their efforts to safeguard their regional interests. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, may through calculated engagement with the diverse Syrian political factions and reconstruction efforts may attempt to gain leverage by trying to counter Turkish and Iranian aspirations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, the turmoil in Syria could also exacerbate sectarian tensions as Sunni Arab states may seek to prevent Iran from regaining influence, while various militant groups, including the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) could try to rebuild their operational presence in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Syrian conflict is now proving to be the Achilles heel of the Iranian axis. An ally of the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979, the Assad regime called on Tehran to help quash the uprising. Hezbollah deployed thousands of men in Syria, transforming from a Lebanese political party and militant group into an Iranian expeditionary force. But Hezbollah\u2019s fighting in the open in Syria for a decade exposed it to Israeli surveillance.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This helped Israel\u2019s recent military campaign, which decimated the group\u2019s leadership and destroyed much of its capabilities. Iran\u2019s hubris grew as it added another Arab capital under its control. But helping Damascus also stretched Tehran\u2019s capabilities, siphoned off resources and exposed its vulnerabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Israel may take more assertive positions against Iran-affiliated organisations in the region, including Lebanese resistance groups active in Syria, with the aim to prevent Tehran from reconstituting its sphere of influence in Israel\u2019s north.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The list of challenges for Syria is long, including deep apprehensions about rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham\u2019s (HTS) vision for the future, the possibility of violent retributions after five decades of oppression and the danger of a resurgence of Isis. Syrians do not need to be reminded of this, instead an end to foreign meddling in the country is the need of the hour, but no regional player is going to exercised constraint.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The sudden collapse of Bashar Assad\u2019s regime in Syria changed the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East overnight. Iran and Turkey, who for years maintained a delicate geopolitical balance, are now faced with competing interests in a post-Assad Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has accused the United States, Israel, and Turkey of trying to overthrow the Assad\u2019s government in Syria. He claims this is part of a joint \u201cAmerican-Zionist\u201d plan, with Turkey also involved.&nbsp; These developments also highlight the complex geopolitical situation of the region.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He further stressed the importance of helping Syria in this challenging time. The situation remains tense as these accusations unfold. Despite years of collaboration \u2013 particularly on Turkey\u2019s economic support to circumvent international sanctions on Iran \u2013 relations between Iran and Turkey appear to be tattering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turkey has long provided support for anti-Assad rebel groups, including the HTS which led the march to Damascus. However, Turkey\u2019s primary interest in Syria has been to create a buffer zone and a bridgehead to fight Kurdish groups in northern Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In post-Assad Syria, Turkey ultimately wants to prevent Kurdish interests from taking root in a new Syrian government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Henri J Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the US Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in a recent article that the \u201csingle most crucial aim\u201d for Turkey in Syria remains the eradication of the Syrian Kurdish group, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Barkey said Turkey fears that \u201cSyrian Kurds would cut a deal with any central government in Damascus to achieve an autonomous status just like Iraqi Kurds did following the Iraq war.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Iran, the Assad regime was a critical strategic ally in the Middle East, and as Turkey is poised to gain influence, Iran\u2019s ability to project power in the region has been steadily diminishing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ahmad Vakhshiteh, a senior lecturer at RUDN University in Moscow, told&nbsp;<em>Deutsch Welle<\/em>&nbsp;he believes that recent developments in Syria have shifted the balance of power in Turkey\u2019s favour. Vakhshiteh told&nbsp;<em>DW<\/em>&nbsp;that Ankara could capitalise on Tehran\u2019s current vulnerabilities to advance its wider and complex geopolitical aims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This includes support for a land corridor connecting the land-locked Azerbaijani exclave Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan. Nakhchivan borders both Turkey and Iran. Turkey is in favour of the land corridor that would connect it with Turkic regions. Iran has raised concerns that Azerbaijan could use it to block Iran\u2019s access to Armenia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For years, Turkey has been a critical partner in helping Iran circumvent international sanctions over Tehran\u2019s nuclear programme. Along with the UAE, Turkey has facilitated trade and provided essential goods to Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Official data from Iran\u2019s customs authority revealed that trade volume between the two countries reached approximately $10 billion in the first ten months of this year, with ambitions to triple this figure within five years. However, escalating tensions could threaten this economic lifeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this background, the Western alliance, led by the US and European nations, may intensify their strategic involvement, at a later stage, if not imminently, through coordinated diplomatic channels and measured interventions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such engagement will serve the West\u2019s dual objectives of preventing the reemergence of non-state militant organisations, while limiting Russian and Iranian strategic expansion in the Mediterranean region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the emerging situation in Syria is not going to straightforward. Assad was able to secure both Turkish and Iranian and some Arab states due to his ability to stop the Israeli troops from advancing into the buffer zone. But with that aim now achieved, Israel may push further to gain control of other crucial areas and may reveal its ultimate plan for the region in the coming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u2013&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<p id=\"pvc_stats_5516\" class=\"pvc_stats all  \" data-element-id=\"5516\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon medium\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" version=\"1.0\" viewBox=\"0 0 502 315\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\"><g transform=\"translate(0,332) scale(0.1,-0.1)\" fill=\"\" stroke=\"none\"><path d=\"M2394 3279 l-29 -30 -3 -207 c-2 -182 0 -211 15 -242 39 -76 157 -76 196 0 15 31 17 60 15 243 l-3 209 -33 29 c-26 23 -41 29 -80 29 -41 0 -53 -5 -78 -31z\"\/><path d=\"M3085 3251 c-45 -19 -58 -50 -96 -229 -47 -217 -49 -260 -13 -295 52 -53 146 -42 177 20 16 31 87 366 87 410 0 70 -86 122 -155 94z\"\/><path d=\"M1751 3234 c-13 -9 -29 -31 -37 -50 -12 -29 -10 -49 21 -204 19 -94 39 -189 45 -210 14 -50 54 -80 110 -80 34 0 48 6 76 34 21 21 34 44 34 59 0 14 -18 113 -40 219 -37 178 -43 195 -70 221 -36 32 -101 37 -139 11z\"\/><path d=\"M1163 3073 c-36 -7 -73 -59 -73 -102 0 -56 133 -378 171 -413 34 -32 83 -37 129 -13 70 36 67 87 -16 290 -86 209 -89 214 -129 231 -35 14 -42 15 -82 7z\"\/><path d=\"M3689 3066 c-15 -9 -33 -30 -42 -48 -48 -103 -147 -355 -147 -375 0 -98 131 -148 192 -74 13 15 57 108 97 206 80 196 84 226 37 273 -30 30 -99 39 -137 18z\"\/><path d=\"M583 2784 c-38 -19 -67 -74 -58 -113 9 -42 211 -354 242 -373 16 -10 45 -18 66 -18 51 0 107 52 107 100 0 39 -1 41 -124 234 -80 126 -108 162 -133 173 -41 17 -61 16 -100 -3z\"\/><path d=\"M4250 2784 c-14 -9 -74 -91 -133 -183 -95 -150 -107 -173 -107 -213 0 -55 33 -94 87 -104 67 -13 90 8 211 198 130 202 137 225 78 284 -27 27 -42 34 -72 34 -22 0 -50 -8 -64 -16z\"\/><path d=\"M2275 2693 c-553 -48 -1095 -270 -1585 -649 -135 -104 -459 -423 -483 -476 -23 -49 -22 -139 2 -186 73 -142 361 -457 571 -626 285 -228 642 -407 990 -497 242 -63 336 -73 660 -74 310 0 370 5 595 52 535 111 1045 392 1455 803 122 121 250 273 275 326 19 41 19 137 0 174 -41 79 -309 363 -465 492 -447 370 -946 591 -1479 653 -113 14 -422 18 -536 8z m395 -428 c171 -34 330 -124 456 -258 112 -119 167 -219 211 -378 27 -96 24 -300 -5 -401 -72 -255 -236 -447 -474 -557 -132 -62 -201 -76 -368 -76 -167 0 -236 14 -368 76 -213 98 -373 271 -451 485 -162 444 86 934 547 1084 153 49 292 57 452 25z m909 -232 c222 -123 408 -262 593 -441 76 -74 138 -139 138 -144 0 -16 -233 -242 -330 -319 -155 -123 -309 -223 -461 -299 l-81 -41 32 46 c18 26 49 83 70 128 143 306 141 649 -6 957 -25 52 -61 116 -79 142 l-34 47 45 -20 c26 -10 76 -36 113 -56z m-2057 25 c-40 -58 -105 -190 -130 -263 -110 -324 -59 -707 132 -981 25 -35 42 -64 37 -64 -19 0 -241 119 -326 174 -188 122 -406 314 -532 468 l-58 71 108 103 c185 178 428 349 672 473 66 33 121 60 123 61 2 0 -10 -19 -26 -42z\"\/><path d=\"M2375 1950 c-198 -44 -350 -190 -395 -379 -18 -76 -8 -221 19 -290 114 -284 457 -406 731 -260 98 52 188 154 231 260 27 69 37 214 19 290 -38 163 -166 304 -326 360 -67 23 -215 33 -279 19z\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/i> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading\" src=\"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/plugins\/page-views-count\/ajax-loader-2x.gif\" border=0 \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<p>https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/ https:\/\/maeeshat.in\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/ https:\/\/www.punjabtodaynews.com\/assads-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/ https:\/\/ground.news\/article\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances-clarion-india https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/ https:\/\/www.sentinelassam.com\/more-news\/editorial\/assads-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances https:\/\/ummid.com\/news\/2024\/december\/16-12-2024\/assad-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances.html https:\/\/www.punjabtodaynews.com\/assads-downfall-alters-old-regional-alliances\/ Assad&#8217;s Downfall Alters Old Regional Alliances The fall of Assad-regime has given birth to antagonisms amongst its earlier allies like Iran, Turkey, and Russia. On the other hand, the leverage gained by Israel, ostensibly on American support, does not augur well for the region.\u00a0 The striking developments [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[173,83],"tags":[146,144,147,143,139,142,145,156],"class_list":["post-5516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-december-2024","category-latest-articles-in-english-all","tag-ammedia","tag-asad-mirza","tag-asadmirza-articles","tag-british-muslims","tag-latest-news","tag-muslims","tag-palestine","tag-us-news"],"a3_pvc":{"activated":true,"total_views":90,"today_views":0},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5516"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5516\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5522,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5516\/revisions\/5522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}