{"id":5475,"date":"2024-12-15T06:13:09","date_gmt":"2024-12-15T06:13:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/?p=5475"},"modified":"2024-12-15T06:13:10","modified_gmt":"2024-12-15T06:13:10","slug":"lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/?p=5475","title":{"rendered":"Lebanon Ceasefire and the Future of Hezbollah"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div><p id=\"pvc_stats_5475\" class=\"pvc_stats all  \" data-element-id=\"5475\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon medium\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" version=\"1.0\" viewBox=\"0 0 502 315\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\"><g transform=\"translate(0,332) scale(0.1,-0.1)\" fill=\"\" stroke=\"none\"><path d=\"M2394 3279 l-29 -30 -3 -207 c-2 -182 0 -211 15 -242 39 -76 157 -76 196 0 15 31 17 60 15 243 l-3 209 -33 29 c-26 23 -41 29 -80 29 -41 0 -53 -5 -78 -31z\"\/><path d=\"M3085 3251 c-45 -19 -58 -50 -96 -229 -47 -217 -49 -260 -13 -295 52 -53 146 -42 177 20 16 31 87 366 87 410 0 70 -86 122 -155 94z\"\/><path d=\"M1751 3234 c-13 -9 -29 -31 -37 -50 -12 -29 -10 -49 21 -204 19 -94 39 -189 45 -210 14 -50 54 -80 110 -80 34 0 48 6 76 34 21 21 34 44 34 59 0 14 -18 113 -40 219 -37 178 -43 195 -70 221 -36 32 -101 37 -139 11z\"\/><path d=\"M1163 3073 c-36 -7 -73 -59 -73 -102 0 -56 133 -378 171 -413 34 -32 83 -37 129 -13 70 36 67 87 -16 290 -86 209 -89 214 -129 231 -35 14 -42 15 -82 7z\"\/><path d=\"M3689 3066 c-15 -9 -33 -30 -42 -48 -48 -103 -147 -355 -147 -375 0 -98 131 -148 192 -74 13 15 57 108 97 206 80 196 84 226 37 273 -30 30 -99 39 -137 18z\"\/><path d=\"M583 2784 c-38 -19 -67 -74 -58 -113 9 -42 211 -354 242 -373 16 -10 45 -18 66 -18 51 0 107 52 107 100 0 39 -1 41 -124 234 -80 126 -108 162 -133 173 -41 17 -61 16 -100 -3z\"\/><path d=\"M4250 2784 c-14 -9 -74 -91 -133 -183 -95 -150 -107 -173 -107 -213 0 -55 33 -94 87 -104 67 -13 90 8 211 198 130 202 137 225 78 284 -27 27 -42 34 -72 34 -22 0 -50 -8 -64 -16z\"\/><path d=\"M2275 2693 c-553 -48 -1095 -270 -1585 -649 -135 -104 -459 -423 -483 -476 -23 -49 -22 -139 2 -186 73 -142 361 -457 571 -626 285 -228 642 -407 990 -497 242 -63 336 -73 660 -74 310 0 370 5 595 52 535 111 1045 392 1455 803 122 121 250 273 275 326 19 41 19 137 0 174 -41 79 -309 363 -465 492 -447 370 -946 591 -1479 653 -113 14 -422 18 -536 8z m395 -428 c171 -34 330 -124 456 -258 112 -119 167 -219 211 -378 27 -96 24 -300 -5 -401 -72 -255 -236 -447 -474 -557 -132 -62 -201 -76 -368 -76 -167 0 -236 14 -368 76 -213 98 -373 271 -451 485 -162 444 86 934 547 1084 153 49 292 57 452 25z m909 -232 c222 -123 408 -262 593 -441 76 -74 138 -139 138 -144 0 -16 -233 -242 -330 -319 -155 -123 -309 -223 -461 -299 l-81 -41 32 46 c18 26 49 83 70 128 143 306 141 649 -6 957 -25 52 -61 116 -79 142 l-34 47 45 -20 c26 -10 76 -36 113 -56z m-2057 25 c-40 -58 -105 -190 -130 -263 -110 -324 -59 -707 132 -981 25 -35 42 -64 37 -64 -19 0 -241 119 -326 174 -188 122 -406 314 -532 468 l-58 71 108 103 c185 178 428 349 672 473 66 33 121 60 123 61 2 0 -10 -19 -26 -42z\"\/><path d=\"M2375 1950 c-198 -44 -350 -190 -395 -379 -18 -76 -8 -221 19 -290 114 -284 457 -406 731 -260 98 52 188 154 231 260 27 69 37 214 19 290 -38 163 -166 304 -326 360 -67 23 -215 33 -279 19z\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/i> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading\" src=\"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/plugins\/page-views-count\/ajax-loader-2x.gif\" border=0 \/><\/p><div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1012\" data-id=\"5477\" src=\"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e2-3-1024x1012.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5477\" srcset=\"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e2-3-1024x1012.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e2-3-300x296.jpg 300w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e2-3-768x759.jpg 768w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e2-3.jpg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"953\" height=\"1024\" data-id=\"5476\" src=\"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e1-3-953x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5476\" srcset=\"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e1-3-953x1024.jpg 953w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e1-3-279x300.jpg 279w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e1-3-768x826.jpg 768w, https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/e1-3.jpg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 953px) 100vw, 953px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/raksha-anirveda.com\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/\n\">https:\/\/raksha-anirveda.com\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/muslimmirror.com\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/\n\">https:\/\/muslimmirror.com\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/\n\">https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/radianceweekly.net\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/\n\">https:\/\/radianceweekly.net\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/\n\">https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nagalandpost.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/04\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/\n\">https:\/\/nagalandpost.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/04\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/scoopnews.in\/m\/newsdet.aspx?q=134541\">https:\/\/scoopnews.in\/m\/newsdet.aspx?q=134541<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The ceasefire in Lebanon apart from giving respite to the beleaguered Lebanese, will also be a litmus test for the Hezbollah on whether it can continue to flourish as a political and militant outfit in Lebanon or not.<br>It would not be wrong to say that the whole of the world and the Middle East and in particular Lebanon took a cautious sigh of relief as the fragile ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, was announced last week.<br>The main concern however was whether this ceasefire could hold?, as claims and counter claims by attacks and incursions by both the parties were reported in the first twenty-four hours. But precariously so far, the ceasefire has been held by both the parties.<br>While fighting may be over, or at least paused, attention now shifts to another challenge facing Lebanon and Hezbollah: internal reckoning. In addition, what ace does Iran has, as it ordered its proxy to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon. But the larger question is whether Hezbollah will be able to survive this ceasefire as a political and militant group in Lebanon or not.<br>While some segments of the Lebanese population and Hezbollah\u2019s supporters, see the ceasefire as a victory for the party, others have decried the bloodshed and destruction caused by a conflict they did not back.<br>Hezbollah opened a limited battlefront against Israel on 8 October 2023 in support of Hamas and Palestinians under attack in the Gaza Strip. The conflict started last year after Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel following Hamas\u2019s October 7 attack, before Israel launched a full-scale invasion in September.<br>Imad Salamey, a Middle Eastern politics expert at the Lebanese American University, told UK-based website Middle East Eye that \u201cHezbollah\u2019s claim of victory holds little weight outside its core constituency. The war was not widely popular among the Lebanese people, many of whom are more focused on the devastating economic losses inflicted during the conflict.\u201d<br>For more than a year, the conflict was mostly limited to clashes in the border areas between Lebanon and Israel. However, the picture changes in September, when Israel exploded thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah members before launching a widespread bombing campaign across the country followed by a ground invasion. More than 3,900 people in Lebanon were killed and over a million displaced.<br>While Lebanese have largely acted in solidarity with those displaced and killed by Israel, and stood by their compatriots in the face of Israeli forces, how the conflict has shifted domestic political dynamics may determine Lebanon&#8217;s fate for years to come.<br>In fact, the presence of Hezbollah and its militant arm has been a point of contention for decades in Lebanese politics. Salamey says that Hezbollah is \u201clikely concerned about growing opposition within Lebanon, which could create two polarised camps, one supporting Hezbollah and the other pushing for disarmament\u201d.<br>\u201cTo suppress dissent and maintain control, Hezbollah may feel compelled to take domestic actions, including using its influence to neutralise political opponents or deter their activities through various actions,\u201d he added.<br>In contrast, Qassim Qassir, an analyst close to Hezbollah, told MEE that the group remains \u201creassured\u201d about its internal political position in Lebanon. The group is currently reviewing its latest actions and will \u201cdefine its future vision and is reassured that the results of the battle were in its favour\u201d, according to Qassir.<br>Qassir said further that these people have so far \u201cfailed\u201d to take advantage of the war and its consequences to score political points against Hezbollah.<br>The US-brokered ceasefire agreement is intended to erode Hezbollah\u2019s ability to operate freely in its bastion of southern Lebanon, barring the group from having a military presence south of the Litani River. Those close to Hezbollah say it is unclear whether that means its fighters \u2014 many of whom are residents of villages and towns in the south \u2014 would be able to return.<br>Hezbollah\u2019s ability to continue firing heavier projectile barrages deeper into Israel, including anti-tank missiles and drones, shows it still possesses potent military capabilities. People close to the group also point to its ability to prevent Israel from advancing deep into Lebanon, killing about 50 Israeli soldiers, as proof of its capability.<br>Unlike in 2006, when Hezbollah was able to ignore a similar deal that ended a war that year, the group will now have to show that it is actively complying with the terms of the ceasefire. The weak Lebanese state \u2014 already worn out by a yearlong conflict and festering economic crisis \u2014 could pay the price if it does not.<br>That may open the door to opponents demanding the dismantling of Hezbollah, which remains a powerful representative of the country\u2019s Shias, one of its largest communities, with vast reach into the levers of the state.<br>Hezbollah\u2019s victory narrative will be embraced for now by its constituency, many of whom will be relieved to be able to start going back home. But the message will be undermined without massive reconstruction, compensation, and resumption of social welfare in the face of widespread destruction and displacement.<br>The World Bank estimates the war has caused $8.5 billion in damage and economic losses \u2013 more than one-third of Lebanon\u2019s GDP. Hezbollah insists that money for reconstruction will not be an issue, but given that its own main backer Iran has its own economic woes and Hezbollah\u2019s unpopularity with other Middle \u00adEastern governments, it is unclear who may \u00adcontribute funds for reconstruction, and with what conditions.<br>As powerful a representative as Hezbollah remains for Lebanon\u2019s Shia, its domestic political rivals are always looking for an opportunity to exploit claims that the group brings nothing but trouble to the country as a whole.<br>These rivals include Christian leaders who are keen to shift the levers of power in Lebanon\u2019s sectarian power-sharing \u00adsystem in their favour. The danger as in Lebanon\u2019s past that such challenges to power end up in sectarian violence is a spectre the country has long lived with.<br>Janna Kadri and Tala Alayli, in their piece on the website Al Mayadeen opines that Hezbollah\u2019s steadfast ability to endure and confront one of the most technologically advanced militaries on the planet highlights its endurance power<br>David Pratt, Foreign Editor with The Herald on Sunday sums it up pithily opining that by steadfastly championing Palestinian rights and opposing external domination, Hezbollah amplified its influence far beyond Lebanon\u2019s borders. It became a beacon of resistance against the forces of oppression, inspiring solidarity across diverse communities united in the pursuit of justice.<br>Sayyed Nasrallah\u2019s role as a rallying figure cemented this legacy, while also galvanising a shared vision of dignity and sovereignty in defiance of foreign domination. Through its actions and narrative, Hezbollah solidified its position not just as a regional force but as an emblem of global resistance against colonialism and imperialism, Pratt wrote further.<br>Perhaps nowhere will the post-ceasefire political landscape be tested more than in the country\u2019s south, much of which are inhabited by Lebanon\u2019s Shia population and therefore Hezbollah heartlands.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<p id=\"pvc_stats_5475\" class=\"pvc_stats all  \" data-element-id=\"5475\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon medium\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" version=\"1.0\" viewBox=\"0 0 502 315\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\"><g transform=\"translate(0,332) scale(0.1,-0.1)\" fill=\"\" stroke=\"none\"><path d=\"M2394 3279 l-29 -30 -3 -207 c-2 -182 0 -211 15 -242 39 -76 157 -76 196 0 15 31 17 60 15 243 l-3 209 -33 29 c-26 23 -41 29 -80 29 -41 0 -53 -5 -78 -31z\"\/><path d=\"M3085 3251 c-45 -19 -58 -50 -96 -229 -47 -217 -49 -260 -13 -295 52 -53 146 -42 177 20 16 31 87 366 87 410 0 70 -86 122 -155 94z\"\/><path d=\"M1751 3234 c-13 -9 -29 -31 -37 -50 -12 -29 -10 -49 21 -204 19 -94 39 -189 45 -210 14 -50 54 -80 110 -80 34 0 48 6 76 34 21 21 34 44 34 59 0 14 -18 113 -40 219 -37 178 -43 195 -70 221 -36 32 -101 37 -139 11z\"\/><path d=\"M1163 3073 c-36 -7 -73 -59 -73 -102 0 -56 133 -378 171 -413 34 -32 83 -37 129 -13 70 36 67 87 -16 290 -86 209 -89 214 -129 231 -35 14 -42 15 -82 7z\"\/><path d=\"M3689 3066 c-15 -9 -33 -30 -42 -48 -48 -103 -147 -355 -147 -375 0 -98 131 -148 192 -74 13 15 57 108 97 206 80 196 84 226 37 273 -30 30 -99 39 -137 18z\"\/><path d=\"M583 2784 c-38 -19 -67 -74 -58 -113 9 -42 211 -354 242 -373 16 -10 45 -18 66 -18 51 0 107 52 107 100 0 39 -1 41 -124 234 -80 126 -108 162 -133 173 -41 17 -61 16 -100 -3z\"\/><path d=\"M4250 2784 c-14 -9 -74 -91 -133 -183 -95 -150 -107 -173 -107 -213 0 -55 33 -94 87 -104 67 -13 90 8 211 198 130 202 137 225 78 284 -27 27 -42 34 -72 34 -22 0 -50 -8 -64 -16z\"\/><path d=\"M2275 2693 c-553 -48 -1095 -270 -1585 -649 -135 -104 -459 -423 -483 -476 -23 -49 -22 -139 2 -186 73 -142 361 -457 571 -626 285 -228 642 -407 990 -497 242 -63 336 -73 660 -74 310 0 370 5 595 52 535 111 1045 392 1455 803 122 121 250 273 275 326 19 41 19 137 0 174 -41 79 -309 363 -465 492 -447 370 -946 591 -1479 653 -113 14 -422 18 -536 8z m395 -428 c171 -34 330 -124 456 -258 112 -119 167 -219 211 -378 27 -96 24 -300 -5 -401 -72 -255 -236 -447 -474 -557 -132 -62 -201 -76 -368 -76 -167 0 -236 14 -368 76 -213 98 -373 271 -451 485 -162 444 86 934 547 1084 153 49 292 57 452 25z m909 -232 c222 -123 408 -262 593 -441 76 -74 138 -139 138 -144 0 -16 -233 -242 -330 -319 -155 -123 -309 -223 -461 -299 l-81 -41 32 46 c18 26 49 83 70 128 143 306 141 649 -6 957 -25 52 -61 116 -79 142 l-34 47 45 -20 c26 -10 76 -36 113 -56z m-2057 25 c-40 -58 -105 -190 -130 -263 -110 -324 -59 -707 132 -981 25 -35 42 -64 37 -64 -19 0 -241 119 -326 174 -188 122 -406 314 -532 468 l-58 71 108 103 c185 178 428 349 672 473 66 33 121 60 123 61 2 0 -10 -19 -26 -42z\"\/><path d=\"M2375 1950 c-198 -44 -350 -190 -395 -379 -18 -76 -8 -221 19 -290 114 -284 457 -406 731 -260 98 52 188 154 231 260 27 69 37 214 19 290 -38 163 -166 304 -326 360 -67 23 -215 33 -279 19z\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/i> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading\" src=\"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/wp-content\/plugins\/page-views-count\/ajax-loader-2x.gif\" border=0 \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<p>https:\/\/raksha-anirveda.com\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/ https:\/\/muslimmirror.com\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/ https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/ https:\/\/radianceweekly.net\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/ https:\/\/clarionindia.net\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/ https:\/\/nagalandpost.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/04\/lebanon-ceasefire-and-the-future-of-hezbollah\/ https:\/\/scoopnews.in\/m\/newsdet.aspx?q=134541 The ceasefire in Lebanon apart from giving respite to the beleaguered Lebanese, will also be a litmus test for the Hezbollah on whether it can continue to flourish as a political and militant outfit in Lebanon or not.It would not be wrong to say that the whole of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[173,83],"tags":[146,144,147,143,158,139,142,145,156,79],"class_list":["post-5475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-december-2024","category-latest-articles-in-english-all","tag-ammedia","tag-asad-mirza","tag-asadmirza-articles","tag-british-muslims","tag-japan","tag-latest-news","tag-muslims","tag-palestine","tag-us-news","tag-video"],"a3_pvc":{"activated":true,"total_views":112,"today_views":0},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5475","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5475"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5475\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5478,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5475\/revisions\/5478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5475"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5475"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asadmirza.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5475"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}